ORIC http://digitalrepository.fccollege.edu.pk/handle/123456789/3 2026-11-10T17:00:24Z 2026-11-10T17:00:24Z Atiq-ur-Rehman, Muhammad Mustafa, Sadia Hussain, Ayesha Khan, Irfan Hussain Akhtar, Fatima Javed, Sadaf Batool, Dr. Azma http://digitalrepository.fccollege.edu.pk/handle/123456789/2986 2026-11-10T10:48:30Z 2026-07-01T00:00:00Z

Title: Food security dynamics in South Asia: a multi-method analysis using Random Forest and Error Trend Seasonal models Authors: Atiq-ur-Rehman, Muhammad; Mustafa, Sadia; Hussain, Ayesha; Khan, Irfan Hussain; Akhtar, Fatima; Javed, Sadaf; Batool, Dr. Azma Abstract: Food security in South Asia is a serious issue to be considered in the context of high popu- lation growth, climatic variation, and alteration in the structure of the economy. This paper gives a detailed, multi-method evaluation of the Food Production Index (FPI) in seven South Asian countries such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, as well as the aggregate of the region. Among these, non-parametric trend detection (Sens’ slope and Kendall’s tau), heatmap correlation, RF Machine Learning (ML) models with Leave One Out Cross Validation (LOOCV) compared to XGBoost and Lasso regression, SHAP-based feature importance analysis, and Error, Trend, and Season- al (ETS)-based forecasting methods are employed for the period 2026–35. The empirical findings indicate that there are differences across the countries considered. Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have significant positive changes in FPI, whereas the Maldives has a significant negative change. The RF model performed better or equally well compared to other competing models, with R2≥0.97 and R2≥0.94 in the case of major agrarian economies (India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan). RF performance is relatively worse in Bhutan and the Maldives, not due to a modelling weakness, but owing to structural volatility in their food production systems. Sri Lanka has shown moderate growth, which is vulnerable to changes in the economic and ecological environments. Ac- cording to ETS forecasts, the growth rate will be slower for large agrarian economies by 2035, while for smaller and vulnerable states, the growth forecasts are associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The largest economies dominate regional food production, yet pronounced structural divergence in food security trajectories across South Asian coun- tries, highlights critical gaps that aggregate indicators conceal, underscoring the urgent need for country-specific policy interventions. This study offers a novel methodological synthesis of statistical trend analysis, ML, and ETS forecasting, providing actionable in- sights for climate adaptation and the development of climate-resilient agricultural systems across South Asia. Description: NA

2026-07-01T00:00:00Z Batool, Dr. Azma Tariq, Ali Liaqat, Saima Khan, Irfan Hussain http://digitalrepository.fccollege.edu.pk/handle/123456789/2985 2026-11-10T10:41:44Z 2025-09-30T00:00:00Z

Title: Institutions, Corruption and Economic Development: PLS-SEM Analysis Authors: Batool, Dr. Azma; Tariq, Ali; Liaqat, Saima; Khan, Irfan Hussain Abstract: This study inspects the moderating effect of corruption in connection concerning economic development and institutional quality. It’s commonly acknowledged that institutional quality is a key factor in determining long-term prosperity, which includes governance aspects including regulatory quality, rule of law, and government efficacy. Corruption, measured using the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), is hypothesized to alter this relationship by either weakening or amplifying the effect of institutions on development outcomes. The study utilizes cross-country data for 130 countries from 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023, distributed into high and low institutional quality clusters. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling is utilized to test the hypotheses and evaluate the interaction effects. In both governance systems, all results show that institutional quality significantly and favorably influences economic development. The moderation analysis confirms that corruption significantly conditions the institutional quality–development relationship: Corruption reductions bolster the beneficial effects of governance on development in nations with high institutional quality, but the moderating effect is even more noticeable in those with low institutional quality. These findings offer strong empirical backing for the "sand the wheels" theory, which contends that corruption compromises development outcomes and institutional efficacy. This research contributes to institutional economics by highlighting the interactive dynamics between governance and corruption. It offers practical implications for policymakers, emphasising the need for integrated governance reforms and anti-corruption strategies to achieve sustainable development goals. Description: NA

2025-09-30T00:00:00Z Batool, Dr. Azma http://digitalrepository.fccollege.edu.pk/handle/123456789/2984 2026-11-10T10:29:33Z 2025-10-07T00:00:00Z

Title: Everyday norms have become more permissive over time and vary across cultures Authors: Batool, Dr. Azma Abstract: Every social situation that people encounter in their daily lives comes with a set of unwritten rules about what behavior is considered appropriate or inappropriate. These everyday norms can vary across societies: some societies may have more permissive norms in general or for certain behaviors, or for certain behaviors in specific situations. In a preregistered survey of 25,422 participants across 90 societies, we map societal differences in 150 everyday norms and show that they can be explained by how societies prioritize individualizing moral foundations such as care and liberty versus binding moral foundations such as purity. Specifically, societies with more individualistic morality tend to have more permissive norms in general (greater liberty) and especially for behaviors deemed vulgar (less purity), but they exhibit less permissive norms for behaviors perceived to have negative consequences in specific situations (greater care). By comparing our data with available data collected twenty years ago, we find a global pattern of change toward more permissive norms overall but less permissive norms for the most vulgar and inconsiderate behaviors. This study explains how social norms vary across behaviors, situations, societies, and time. Description: NA

2025-10-07T00:00:00Z Batool, Dr. Azma http://digitalrepository.fccollege.edu.pk/handle/123456789/2983 2026-11-10T10:15:44Z 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z

Title: How Norms Depend on the Presence and Status of Observers: The Relational Contingency of Everyday Behaviors in 90 Societies Authors: Batool, Dr. Azma Abstract: Norms are fundamental to social life, but basic questions about how they are affected by social context remain. Specifically, how do normative constraints depend on the presence and status of observers, and how do such relational contingencies vary across cultures? Using data from more than 25,000 individuals across 90 societies, we test several hypotheses linking normative constraints on everyday behaviors (like arguing, laughing, cursing, kissing, and crying), to the presence and status of observers. We find that behaviors widely viewed as appropriate in private become more constrained in the presence of others (an observer effect), and even more so when those others are higher in status (a status effect). Both observer and status effects are culturally universal, but the observer effect shows more variation across cultures. In particular, we find that observer effects are larger in societies that emphasize individualizing moral foundations, that is, avoiding harm and unfairness to others, because these societies are more permissive of actions when others are not around. The relative stability of status effects across cultural contexts suggests a universal tendency to defer in social hierarchies. These findings shed light on the relational contingency of everyday norms and underscore the role of such norms in the maintenance of social order and reproduction of inequality. Description: NA

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