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Title: | National age and co-residence patterns shape covid-19 vulnerability |
Authors: | Esteve, Albert Permanyer, Inaki Boertien, Diederik Vaupel, James W. |
Keywords: | Sociology |
Issue Date: | May-2020 |
Citation: | Esteve, A., Permanyer, I., Boertien, D., & Vaupel, J. W. (2020). National age and co-residence patterns shape covid-19 vulnerability. medRxiv. |
Abstract: | Based on harmonized census data from 81 countries, we estimate how age and co-residence patterns shape the vulnerability of countries’ populations to outbreaks of covid-19. We estimate variation in deaths arising due to a simulated random infection of 10% of the population living in private households and subsequent within-household transmission of the virus. The agestructures of European and North American countries increase their vulnerability to covid-related deaths in general. The co-residence patterns of elderly persons in Africa and parts of Asia increase these countries’ vulnerability to deaths induced by within-household transmission of covid-19. Southern European countries, which have aged populations and relatively high levels of intergenerational co-residence are, all else equal, the most vulnerable to outbreaks of covid-19. In a second step, we estimate to what extent avoiding primary infections for specific age-groups would prevent subsequent deaths due to within-household transmission of the virus. Preventing primary infections among the elderly is the most effective in countries with small households and little intergenerational co-residence such as France, whereas confining younger age groups can have a greater impact in countries with large and inter-generational households such as Bangladesh. |
URI: | http://localhost:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/1000 |
ISSN: | https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.13.20100289 |
Appears in Collections: | Europe |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
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National age and co-residence patterns shape covid-19 vulnerability.pdf | 3.53 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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