Changing Dynamics of China-India Relations: CPEC and Prospects for Pakistan

Abstract

In the eyes of many Pakistani and international observers, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is changing the dynamics of geopolitics and socio-economic relations in South Asia. Is this likely to dampen or intensify rivalry between India and Pakistan? Indian policy makers and analysts assert that the CPEC is China’s device to ‘encircle India’ and Pakistan is only a collaborator in this scheme, while Pakistani policy makers claim that it is a ‘game changer’ and is solidifying the China-Pakistan strategic partnership. It is noteworthy that China has demonstrated enormous skill in managing ‘territorial disputes’ with India, while continuing to expand their trade and commerce. In fact India- China economic relations are booming with trade and investment to the tune of over 80 billion US dollars, while China- Pakistan trade and investment is less than 18 billion US dollars. Given this reality would China encourage India to join the CPEC and expand its members? This paper explores some of these questions and evaluates the role of India in determining how the BRI will enfold in South Asia. India’s continued objection, particularly of the CPEC, could ignite regional rivalry, which in turn could compel China to review its time-tested policy of ‘non-interference’. As the CPEC unfolds, China’s biggest challenge in South Asia would be managing India-Pakistan relations, yet primary responsibility lies with the two nations themselves.