Remittances and COVID-19:: Is Pakistan ready for a likely decline in flows?

Abstract

The spread of COVID-19, an unprecedented anomaly of our times, is so wide and rapid that even most advanced economies are unable to respond to it quickly and appropriately. If this situation persists longer, not only the global health system may collapse but also there are apprehensions of large-scale socioeconomic meltdown. The Global North is currently the most-affected region due to Coronavirus outbreak where most of the governments have clamped complete lockdowns (Map A). These countries not only drive the global economy, trade and politics but also paved the way for labour migration from the Global South, which is underdeveloped or least developed. The Global South is heavily dependent on financial remittances from migrants. In 2019, the global flow of remittances to developing countries was recoded US$ 550 billion, which is larger than Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA) (Plaza et al. 2019). This flow of remittances helped the developing countries to reduce poverty, overcome food insecurity, support balance of payments, and contribute to national economic growth. Pakistan is among top 10 recipients of global remittances (Plaza et al. 2019). In 2019, Pakistan received Rs 21.8 billion foreign remittances, which contribute to about 8 per cent of its GDP. In the meantime, the migrant workers in GCC countries dropped to about 60 per cent in 2018 compared to 2015, which is mainly due to the nationalization policies opted by these countries (Plaza et al. 2019). The decline in demand for Pakistani migrant workers is alarming and needs immediate attention of the government. Likewise, the strict regulations imposed by the European Union against refugees and asylum seekers during the migrants crisis in 2019 also aggravated the situation. In this backdrop, this policy review looks into the ways how COVID-19 spread can impact remittance flows and what should be the policy options to mitigate this impact.