The impact of COVID-19 on fertility plans in Italy, Germany, France, Spain and UK

Abstract

This study offers an overview on changes in fertility plan during the COVID-19 crisis of a representative sample of the young population (18-34) in Italy, France, Germany, Spain and UK. Data were collected between March 27 and April 7, 2020. Our results show that fertility plans have been negatively revised in all countries, but not in the same way. In Germany and France fertility plans changed moderately, with many people still planning or postponing their decision to have a child during the 2020. In Italy, instead, the proportion of abandoners is much higher than in other countries, while comparatively it shows a lower proportion of those deciding to postpone their plans. Moreover, the demographic characteristics of the individuals seem to be associated with fertility plans in different ways across countries. In Italy, abandoners are common among individuals younger than 30 and those without a tertiary education. In Germany, abandoners are slightly more prevalent in the regions most affected by the COVID-19. In UK, fertility plans have been most frequently abandoned by individuals that expect the worse impact of the crisis on their future income. Finally, in France and Spain we did not observe a clear pattern for revision of fertility plans. These results suggest that different mechanisms are at work, due to the different economic, demographic and policy pre-crisis background and post-crisis prospects. Low-fertility contexts, in particular, appear to be more at risk of a fertility loss due to the crisis.