Poverty, Inequality, Political Instability and Property Crimes in Pakistan: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

In a formal econometric analysis of crime statistics in Pakistan, this paper estimates five systems of equations determining crime rates against property, conviction rates and police and justice input using time series annual data. The study finds substantial empirical support for the model of crime, punishment and deterrence based on economic theory. The main conclusion of the study is that in the fight against crime Pakistan needs to divert resources from the provision of legal justice through various deterrence measures, like a large police force, conviction and punishment, towards the provision of social justice in the form of the fight against poverty, inequality and unemployment and maintenance of political stability. Resources also need to be diverted from punishments to apprehension of criminals.